If the Tigers make the World Series this season it might be in spite of Justin Verlander instead of because him. He is not having a terrible season per se. He has surely not been his typical dominant self though. Recently radio personality and retired player Jack Clark suggested Justin Verlander has not lost velocity, he was just simply not using PEDs anymore. His words not mine. He also included the great Albert Pujols in such discussions.

This decline of Verlander is strangely reminiscent of the one that befell Ricky Romero last season. Romero who is now in Triple-A, hit a major wall last season. Amongst the issues were Romero’s strikeout percentage dropping from 19.4% to 15% and his walk percentage rising from 8.7% to 12.7% from 2011 to 2012. Romero simply could not locate or paint the corners anymore. He has spent the majority of this season in minors. He is 3-6 with 6.20 ERA. In 90 innings he has struck out 63 and issued 54 walks. Romero appears stuck inTriple-A purgatory until his sobering process results in some clean starts.

Verlander has been the games best right-handed pitcher for the last couple of seasons. He has struck out at least 200 batters every season since 2009. In that 2009 campaign he struck out 269.

If you look Verlander’s number this year the only one that really makes you stop and say is that wrong is his 1.338 WHIP. As you stick your spade in a little deeper you’ll see his H/9 is up to 8.9 (career average 7.9), his BB/9 is up to 3.2 (career average 2.8) and SO/BB is down to 2.71 (career average 3.05). On the surface Verlander is 12-9 with a 3.51 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 166.2 innings. You will also remember he was an All-Star this year so what could possibly be the problem.

Verlander’s SO/BB rate of 2.71 is the same against righties and lefties. Righties are also slugging at .428 against and lefties are at .348. Righties have hit 10 homers off of Verlander in 301 plate appearance. Lefties have hit five homers off of him in 410 plate appearances. Interestingly enough though lefties have plunked down 21 doubles against and righties have just seven.

Verlander velocity has dropped. This comes with age. His average fastball velocity during the 2011 and 2012 seasons was 94-98 mph and this year its around 92-94 mph. He is savvy enough to continue his torrid strikeout pace. He is only forty away from that 200 mark and with six to eight starts left that is an achievable goal.

Verlander is still a very good pitcher but his regression is starting to bubble like your morning oatmeal in a powerful microwave.

Josh Johnson